Rate Lock Advisory

Sunday, June 17th

This week brings us the release of only three pieces of monthly economic data that may affect mortgage rates and none of them are considered to be highly important. This should be a much calmer week for mortgage rates than last week was, particularly the first part since there is nothing of importance scheduled for tomorrow. If we see a big move in mortgage rates, it likely will not be a result of the economic reports.

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Bonds


Market Closed

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Dow


Market Closed

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NASDAQ


Market Closed

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium


Unknown


Housing Starts (New Residential Construction)

May's Housing Starts is the first release of the week, coming early Tuesday morning. It tracks groundbreakings of new home projects, but is not considered to be as important as other housing reports. This means it likely will not affect mortgage rates unless its results vary greatly from forecasts. Market analysts are expecting to see an increase in starts of new homes last month. Good news for the bond market and mortgage rates would be a good-sized decline because a weakening housing sector makes broader economic growth less likely.

Medium


Unknown


Existing Home Sales from National Assoc of Realtors

The second report of the week will be released late Wednesday morning when the National Association of Realtors posts May's Existing Home Sales. This report tracks resales of existing homes, giving us a measurement of housing sector strength. It is considered to be moderately important to the markets, but can also influence mortgage rates if it shows a sizable difference between forecasts and actual results. Analysts are currently expecting to see a small increase in sales. As with most economic reports we get, weak numbers will be favorable to mortgage rates.

Low


Unknown


Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board

May's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) will finish this week’s monthly reports, late Thursday morning. The Conference Board, who is a New York-based business research group, produces this report. The LEI attempts to predict economic activity over the next three to six months. Good news for mortgage rates would be a decline in this index, but it is expected to show a 0.4% increase from April's reading. This means it is predicting a increase in economic growth over the next several months. Since this report is not considered to be of high importance, I don't see it causing too much movement in rates regardless if it shows a particularly strong or weak reading.

Medium


Unknown


None

Overall, it is difficult to label any particular day as the most important due to such a light calendar this week. We still should see movement in rates more than one day, although I am not expecting them to make a big move unless something unexpected happens. One possibility would be tariff-related news, which is more likely to be favorable for bonds and mortgage rates than negative. New tariffs from or against the U.S. should cause stock weakness and bond strength. Even though there is little happening this week, it still would be prudent to watch the markets if still floating an interest rates because the markets can get active without notice.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.